Ottawa’s homebuilding industry got an insider’s look Thursday morning at the concerns of many Canadians regarding the high cost of living, an affordability crisis in housing and healthcare, the effects of mass immigration and the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump.

A sold-out crowd took in a 30-minute presentation by Abacus Data founder, chair and CEO 📊 David Coletto 🌎. As the son and grandson of homebuilders, he returns every year to speak to members of the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’​ Association (GOHBA).

Rather than bog everyone down with statistics, he presented his data in easy-to-digest concepts. The picture he painted wasn’t exactly rosy — with such terms as “inflationitis”, “permacrisis” and “scarcity mindset” part of his vocabulary — but he did point to opportunities ahead for the home building industry.

Canadians believe the federal government’s strong pro-immigration policies have contributed to the strain on housing accessibility, said Coletto. “All of you in the room are the solution. We have to build more homes, we have to build them more quickly. You have to reduce that sense of scarcity on that issue if we’re going to get there.”

Abacus Data, an Ottawa-based polling and market research firm, regularly surveys thousands of Canadians at random, sometimes with surprising results. For example, 40 percent of respondents under 30 think it should be illegal to own more than one home in our country.

Increasingly more Canadians say they’re worried about meeting their basic needs, such as having a roof over their head and enough food, Coletto said.

Trump’s return to presidency has become an additional source of concern for Canadians, and his influence is changing what they expect in a federal leader, said Coletto. The president has been threatening tariffs, among other things. “The question more and more Canadians are asking is: ‘Who can best protect me’.”

2025 will be a busy year in provincial and federal politics. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has called a snap election, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, faced with plummeting unpopularity, is stepping down next month, ahead of this year’s election. “Even Canadians’ view of Donald Trump right now is better than it is of Justin Trudeau,” said Coletto while noting that, in one of his past surveys, only 16 percent of Canadians thought the Liberals deserved to be reelected.

Leading in the polls is Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Abacus Data did an interesting survey about six months ago that found Canadians viewed Poilievre as a better problem-solver than Trudeau. He was the preferred choice to assemble a shelf, navigate an Escape Room, and extinguish a kitchen fire. The results were pretty much split when it came to deciding who to sit beside on a plane ride. Respondents picked Trudeau over Poilievre as their guy to throw a party.

Poilievre represents the “Buckley’s theory of politics,” said Coletto, referring to the cough syrup medicine that tastes bad but works.  “I do think there’s an uncomfortableness with Pierre Poilievre that was overshadowed by the dislike for Justin Trudeau,” said Coletto.

He predicted former bank governor Mark Carneywill be the next leader of the Liberals, creating an opening for that party.

“We are seeing evidence that a lot of Canadians are waiting to see who wins the leadership of the Liberal Party, who becomes the next prime minister. By all accounts, it’s likely going to be Mark Carney. I do think there’s an opening for the Liberals there … I do think the game has changed.”

And that means the choice will no longer be between Poilievre or Trudeau, said Coletto. As a result, attitudes have shifted from “I want change so badly, I’ll take anything,” he continued, “to ‘Actually, I‘m not sure which of these two people will do the best job at protecting me’. I think that’s what the campaign is going to be about.”

Coletto predicted that the next three to five years will be “consequential” in Canadian politics and public policy. Since Trudeau’s resignation announcement, Coletto has downgraded his opinion on a new party taking over from “absolutely” to “likely”. The Liberals have been in power for nearly 10 years, approaching the typical lifespan of most governments, he noted. He also predicted Ford is headed for another victory in Ontario.

Coletto told the room that, looking ahead, there will be ”a huge opportunity to drive an agenda that forces municipalities to make it easier to build homes, to reduce red tape and the costs of doing business.

“This is that moment where now we’re all talking about competitiveness, and Canadians are waking up to the fact that it costs way more money to do business here than it does in the United States, and that’s the opportunity I think to drive agenda forward.”

Coletto recognized that preparing for his presentation “in today’s world” was a challenge “because we don’t always know what will happen a few hours even before we have to speak”.

The breakfast also saw Cheryl Rice , president of PMA Brethour Realty Group, present a 2024 market review and outlook for 2025. New home sales, which previously took a big hit, returned to a level closer to normal in 2024 – a clear sign that the market is recovering, she said.

Meanwhile, the resale market has been “on a rollercoaster ride” in recent years, said Rice. In 2024, the resale market bounced back, breaking a two-year decline with more than 13,500 homes sold — an increase of nearly 12 percent from 2023.

The breakfast wrapped up with a discussion between GOHBA board members Linda Oliveri Blanchard, CSP, senior regional manager at Enercare Inc., and Tanya Buckley, MBA, senior vice president at Cardel Homes, on the topic of women in construction. Other board member in attendance included Roy Nandram (RND Construction) and Serge Desjardins (Minto Communities).

Attendees included Leah Nord from the Canadian Home Builders’​ Association National and city councillor David Hill, ICD.D (Barrhaven West). Also spotted were Michelle Taggart from Tamarack Homes and Tartan Homes, and Jonathan Wiseman from Caivan Communities.