A little over a year ago, it looked as though Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would become the next prime minister. That was the prediction of Abacus Data pollster and political scientist David Coletto based on research he shared at last year’s Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA) breakfast, which returned Thursday to St. Elias Centre. The event was co-presented by PMA Brethour Real Estate and Schneider Electric.

This year, Coletto was joined by fellow speakers Cheryl Rice, president of PMA Brethour, and CMHC real estate economist Francis Cortellino for a closer look at Ottawa’s housing market trends, including an expected slowdown in the recent surge of rental development.

Cheryl Rice, president of PMA Brethour Real Estate Group, shared housing trends during the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

Last winter, it was too early to say whether Mark Carney, who was planning his run for Liberal leadership, would click with Canadians. “He wasn’t the kind of guy people would look at and immediately think, ‘He knows me, he relates to me, he gets me, he lives the kind of life I do,’” said Coletto, calling Carney an “exceptional individual” and the “elites’ elite.”

Around that same time, Canadians’ mindset shifted from one focused largely on scarcity — what people didn’t have — to one characterized by precarity, where everything felt up in the air. As a result, Carney came to be seen as the better choice to handle unpredictability and instability, much of it driven by Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, Coletto said.

Carney’s PhD from Oxford and his experience as the central banker of two G7 countries “were exactly what most people were looking for, because fundamentally, they were looking for reassurance,” said Coletto. “They wanted someone to take their hand, who knew what they were doing … and say, ‘It’s going to be okay, I’m going to get you through this.’” He pointed to a graph showing a spike in approval for Carney once he became prime minister.

“It’s like half the country woke up the next day and said, ‘I would have never voted for this party yesterday, but today, bring it on,’” said Coletto. “It drove Pierre Poilievre crazy because he’d been almost measuring the curtains in Rideau Cottage.”

David Coletto, founder, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, was back for his fourth year to speak at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association. Photo by Caroline Phillips

Abacus Data was founded 16 years ago by Coletto, who serves as its chair and CEO. It regularly conducts polls for home-sector stakeholders to understand consumers and the factors shaping their behaviour.

The current mood hasn’t changed people’s dream of owning a home. Eighty-six per cent of those under 30 still want one, the research found. “But they don’t believe it’s possible; they’re increasingly losing faith.”

It’s not just affordability; it’s also the types of homes being built. “Nobody wants to start a family in a 500-square-foot condo,” said Coletto, adding that insufficient housing is contributing to the country’s declining fertility rate.

The precarity mindset, he said, is like driving at night: it’s harder to see what’s ahead. “Right now, most people feel they have no idea what’s coming — not years from now, but weeks from now.”

Even Ottawa, often insulated from economic volatility, isn’t completely immune. Uncertainty in public service restructuring and worries about AI displacing jobs are present, Coletto said.

Seventy per cent of Canadians say uncertainty is causing them to delay major life decisions, including buying a home, research shows. In another survey, two-thirds said they would rather have been born in 1950 than today, including 40 per cent of respondents under 30. “It was a time when, if you had a job, you could buy a home, you could have a life that felt linear. Everything was moving up — wealth, mobility, opportunity,” said Coletto, noting that security wasn’t universal, particularly for women.

“This world is a sh*t show and I’m going to splurge to feel good”

Abacus Data found that although Canadians are still uneasy, the sense of panic has faded now that the inflation surge has largely passed. Some consumers are tightening their belts in certain areas while others continue to spend on discretionary items such as fine dining and travel, noted Coletto, describing the mentality as: “This world is a sh*t show and I’m going to splurge to feel good.”

Buying a new home doesn’t quite fit that behaviour, however. “How you create confidence and certainty with prospective buyers becomes really important in this environment,” Coletto told his audience, explaining that these spending trends are coping mechanisms for people who feel they have little control. “The world around them is dictating whether they have a job, whether they can afford what they need, whether they feel secure.”

Rice shared that as workforce adjustments and rebate details become clearer, the ingredients for renewed activity are falling into place. The buyers are there, and affordability is improving, she said, adding that the question is not whether demand exists, but when it will feel secure enough to move. “Looking back on 2025, what many hoped would be a turnaround year for the new home market was a disappointment. Not because the fundamentals weren’t there but because consumer confidence wasn’t,” said Rice.

Still, there are opportunities for builders. “The fundamental unmet need of consumers right now is reassurance; they need to know it’s going to be okay,” Coletto said.

“What can you do in pricing, marketing and in your conversations with prospective buyers to reduce risk and make things more certain at every stage? It’s the best way to overcome challenges. And if you do more of that — like Mark Carney did — you can be successful, even when people thought it wasn’t possible.”

From left, Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA) board members Roy Nandram (RND Construction), Simran Kochar (Stone Design Concepts), Linda Oliveri Blanchard (Enercare) and Tanya Buckley (Urbandale Construction) with GOHBA executive director Jason Burggraaf and board chair Serge Desjardins (Minto Communities) at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Michael Laurysen (vice president of operations at Laurysen Kitchens) in conversation with Kevin Rankin (Watercolour Westport, Land Ark Homes) at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

Wendy Smith (marketing director at KOTT), Stanley Levine (founder, CEO of Sherbrooke Urban Developments) and Chris Hilliar (sales representative at KOTT) at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

Helen Tang, founder and CEO of HT Realty, at the microphone during the Q&A portion of the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Meighan Hartley, interim CEO of Shepherds of Good Hope Foundation, with Michelle Taggart, president of Tamarack Homes and Tartan Homes, and Hartley’s colleague, senior officer of corporate philanthropy Celina Oliveira-Stipanic, at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

CMHC real estate economist Francis Cortellino spoke about the Ottawa rental market at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From RBC, left to right: Dylan Kostka, Zeina Ghadban and Nesrine Taylor, Chris Finlay (MNP LLP) and Ernesto Hachey, also with RBC, at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association at St. Elias Centre. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Urbandale Construction operations manager Melissa Boudreau, its new senior vice president, Tanya Buckley, and its site operations manager, Candy King, at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

Michael Assal (chief estimator at Morley-Hoppner) in conversation with Melissa Dionne from Tamarack Homes and Tartan Homes during the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Chike Agbasi, manager of government and community relations for The Ottawa Real Estate Board, with Soula Burrell (director of business development and membership at Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association) and David Coletto (founder, chair and CEO of Abacus Data) at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the GOHBA. Photo by Caroline Phillips

David Coletto answering a question from an audience member alongside fellow guest speakers Cheryl Rice (PMA Brethour Real Estate Group) and CMHC real estate economist Francis Cortellino during the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Ken McIntyre (business development manager at R.W. Tomlinson) and Joe Forsyth (geotechnical engineer at Paterson Group) in conversation during the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association executive director Jason Burggraaf, Liz Valente and Nick Rinaldi from co-presenting sponsor Schneider Electric, guest speaker David Coletto (Abacus Data), GOHBA board chair Serge Desjardins (Minto Communities), CMHC real estate economist and guest speaker Francis Cortellino, and Soula Burrell (director of business development and membership at GOHBA). Photo by Caroline Phillips

GOHBA past board president Roy Nandram (RND Construction) in conversation with fellow attendees during the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Melissa Dionne, director of land development at Taggart Investments, and Michelle Taggart, president of Tamarack Homes and Tartan Homes, at the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by GOHBA at St. Elias Centre on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by Caroline Phillips

Abacus Data founder, chair and CEO David Coletto, centre, in conversation with GOHBA board chair Serge Desjardins, left, and CMHC real estate economist Francis Cortellino during the Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025 breakfast hosted by the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association. Photo by Caroline Phillips

From left, Cassandra Bourgeois (SUS Contracting) with Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association’s Soula Burrell, who invited Bourgeois to GOHBA’s breakfast after the young woman took part in last month’s Gold Hearts Gala: The Mayor’s Charity Ball to end youth homelessness in Ottawa. Photo by Caroline Phillips

This article is made possible through sponsorship from Star Motors, WCPD, Syntax Strategic, Marilyn Wilson Dream Properties, ExecHealth, Infinity Convention Centre, Altis Recruitment, Bell Canada, First Avenue Investment Counsel, RBC, Welch LLP, Brazeau Seller Law.

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